Posted on Reddit 3 months ago
We peaked at around 34k concurrent users today.
While it could be - you never know - mathematically speaking we don't expect this to last. The reason is quite simple: when a game launches, you have two effects working together:
- Everyone who waited for the launch comes in at the same time.
- People who just joined often have 8+ hour long play sessions - sometimes much more than that.
These effects ebb off, that's absolutely normal and expected. This "ebb off" effect can be very strong early on, and eventually it wears out completely.
Once that happens, the new players coming in every day - and there is tons of them right now - will become higher than the number of existing players quitting / playing less per day and hence drive up total player count again.
Some of you might remember are now somewhat infamous "saddle point" post
that we created shortly after B2P release almost 2 years ago.
What we think is most likely with F2P is that after the initial rush, player numbers will drop somewhat, eventually stabilize (the saddle point) and then start increasing again. The interesting question is how high that drop is going to be before we start to see an increase. Current numbers are so strong that even if we saw a 90% (!!!) drop we'd still be doing fine - and by all means, we don't think that's going to happen.
We are close to certain that - no matter what - the "look, population is dropping / ded game" posts are going to start appearing over the coming weeks.
Feel free to bookmark this post to show that we called it first